Let Kerry Speak

For the past week, blogosphere election news has been dominated by Swift boat veterans attacking John Kerry's service in Vietnam. Kerry made his participation in that war the central theme in his campaign, which makes his service legitimate target for scrutiny. However just because Kerry leaves himself open doesn't mean it is smart to charge in. Consider the Iowa Electronic Markets presidential election graph. Since August 3rd when the Swift boat veteran attacks began, Bush has lost and Kerry has gained. In contrast during the week of the Democratic convention - when the nominee and leading Democrats were broadcast nightly - Kerry lost and Bush gained, exactly the opposite of what is expected.

How to explain this? I believe it is reality versus projection. When Kerry speaks, voters can see how content-free his campaign truly is. For example, see these Kerry quotes the Shark has assembled from an NPR interview: there's no there there. When Kerry speaks on the stump, he's even worse - so many generalities, you can't tell what action he would take if elected. Hearing this turns people off. But when Kerry is pushed off the front page by negative publicity, voters who don't like Bush can project all their hopes onto Kerry and make him the candidate of their dreams.

In my opinion, Bush's best strategy is to let Kerry speak, forcing people to choose between the real Bush and the real Kerry. Bloggers can help this process by quoting the Democratic nominee of today, and not dwell in the past, which most voters don't care about.

Condi in Seattle

For all fans of the national security advisor, Condoleeza Rice will be speaking at the UW on Monday the 18th at 7pm. Tickets are $35 for the general public, $25 for members of the World Affairs Council.

Update: I just got an email from the organizers. Dr. Rice has rescheduled for September 7th due to obligations in D.C. If you are looking for something else to do on the 18th, consider attending the taping of Republican Perspective, guest-hosted by Stefan Sharkansky.